Monday, December 19, 2016

Thought Provoking

A quote from "The Undoing Project," Michael Lewis' latest book:

Notes made by Amos Tversky:

People predict by making up stories
People predict very little and explain everything
People live under uncertainty whether they like it or not
People believe they can tell the future if they work hard enough
People accept any explanation as long as it fits the facts
The handwriting was on the wall, it was just the ink that was invisible

People often work hard to obtain information they already have
And avoid new knowledge
Man is a deterministic device thrown into a probabilistic

In this match, surprises are expected

Everything that has already happened must have been inevitable


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