Second Term!

Most of the post-Inaugural talk is focused on how Obama strongly endorsed a progressive agenda.  It’s hard to find anything important that he left out.  Climate change, gay rights, equality for women, immigration, gun control, the middle class, and more.  It’s all there, and should be.

However, it is possible that what will be most noteworthy about Obama’s second term will not be what happens with these issues.  It’s possible that something unforeseen will overshadow them all.  An assassination.  An act of terrorism.  A crisis overseas that is a real threat to the United States, not simply a civil war or other problem that has a local impact.

Where might such a crisis happen?  There are many candidates:  Pakistan, North Korea, Israel, Iran, Russia, China, India, even in the European Union should the crisis be economic, not military.

That the world is unpredictable is not a secret known to a few.  I remember my former boss and mentor, Chester Bowles, saying that we would be wise to think of the ten least likely events that could happen in the next ten years.  Why?  Because one or two of them will probably happen.  He meant positive as well as negative events, so we are not limited only to doomsday scenarios.

The second term is off to a good start.  But be prepared.  The unforeseen is lurking.