Friday, February 26, 2010

What Are The Odds?

Relying on intuition only, I predict the following:

There’s a 40% chance that the Democrats will get it together and force a health reform package through Congress in 2010.

0% chance that during the next three years Republicans will cooperate with Obama on any important domestic issue. 100% likely their fundamental policy will be to obstruct.

15% chance the Giants will make the playoffs this year.

50% chance “The Hurt Locker” will beat out “Avatar” for best picture.

75% chance “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” will be gone by the end of the year.

1% chance either the Feds or the State of California will be able to balance their budget within the next 10 years.

10% chance that we will have a mutually constructive partnership with Iraq five years from now.

50% chance Woods will play at the British Open in July.

30% chance the US will get past the group stage at the World Cup.

50% chance that before the summer ends India and Pakistan will get together again for more talks.

5% chance the current US strategy in Afghanistan will achieve results an unbiased observer would call successful.

90% chance that this year talking will not work, Iran will not change its nuclear program and additional sanctions will be imposed. And while they’ll be an increased burden on average Iranians, they won’t work either.


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